It was two months in the past when the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery admonished him for not reading a through-ball. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row , having failed to win any of their first six matches, now sit a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. The historical record, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the victories have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa had an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side who have strung together 10 in a row, Villa look strangely fragile – yet at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping Rogers to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened against United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition had more efforts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival they will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the player he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the young forward now would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. As Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
